ASEAN Centrality and the South China Sea Code of Conduct Negotiations

Background: Renewed tensions in the South China Sea involving the Philippines, Vietnam, and China between 2022 and 2024 have placed considerable strain on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' efforts to finalize a binding Code of Conduct governing maritime disputes in the region. Aims/objectives: This study examines the extent to which ASEAN's consensus-based decision-making model constrains or enables progress toward a unified regional position on South China Sea governance. Method: A qualitative analysis of ASEAN summit declarations, bilateral statements from claimant states, and interviews with regional diplomats was conducted to assess negotiation dynamics over the study period. Results: Findings indicate that divergent bilateral relationships between individual ASEAN members and China have undermined collective bargaining power, with Cambodia and Laos prioritizing economic ties while the Philippines pursued more assertive legal and diplomatic countermeasures through international arbitration mechanisms. Consensus requirements have repeatedly delayed substantive text negotiations on the Code of Conduct. Conclusion: The study concludes that ASEAN centrality faces significant erosion absent reform of its consensus mechanism for sensitive security issues. Strengthening sub-regional coalitions among directly affected claimant states while maintaining ASEAN's overarching diplomatic framework is recommended to preserve negotiating leverage against external pressure. This pattern highlights the broader structural tension between national sovereignty interests and collective regional bargaining within ASEAN's institutional design.

Keywords: ASEAN centrality, South China Sea, Code of Conduct, maritime disputes, regional diplomacy