Pacific Islands Forum Diplomacy and Great Power Competition in Oceania

Background: Intensifying strategic competition between China, the United States, and Australia for influence in the Pacific Islands region since 2022 has placed unprecedented diplomatic pressure on Pacific Islands Forum member states navigating competing security and development partnerships. Aims/objectives: This study investigates how Pacific Island states leverage collective regional diplomacy through the Forum to manage great power engagement while preserving national sovereignty and regional priorities, particularly climate security. Method: A qualitative analysis of Forum communiqués, bilateral security agreements such as the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union, and interviews with Pacific diplomatic officials was conducted across the study period. Results: Findings reveal that smaller Pacific states have successfully reframed great power competition discourse around their own priority of climate change as the foremost security threat, securing increased development financing from multiple competing partners simultaneously. However, internal Forum divisions emerged over differing threat perceptions and bilateral security arrangements with external powers. Conclusion: The study concludes that Pacific Island states have demonstrated notable diplomatic agency in converting great power rivalry into development leverage, though sustained regional cohesion requires careful management of competing bilateral commitments. Strengthening the Forum's collective bargaining mechanisms is recommended to preserve unified regional positioning on climate and security priorities. The Pacific case offers a notable example of small states converting structural vulnerability into a coherent and effective diplomatic narrative.

Keywords: Pacific Islands Forum, great power competition, Oceania diplomacy, climate security, regional cohesion