Longitudinal Analysis of Business Education Graduate Outcomes and National Economic Development Indicators in Nigeria (2010 to 2024)

This study conducted a longitudinal analysis of the relationship between Business Education graduate outcomes and national economic development indicators in Nigeria over a fourteen-year period from 2010 to 2024. Understanding the long-run macroeconomic returns of Business Education investment is critical for national education policy and budget allocation decisions. Despite the importance of this question, no longitudinal study linking Business Education programme outputs to macroeconomic development indicators exists in the Nigerian academic literature. Grounded in the Human Capital Theory, the Endogenous Growth Theory, and the Education-Development Nexus Framework, a longitudinal panel data design was employed. Annual data on Business Education graduate enrollment, graduation rates, and employment outcomes were obtained from the National Universities Commission, National Bureau of Statistics, and the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board spanning the study period. Economic indicators including GDP growth, unemployment rates, entrepreneurial enterprise registration, and financial inclusion rates were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria and World Bank datasets. Vector Autoregression, Granger causality tests, and dynamic panel regression were employed for analysis. Findings reveal a bidirectional Granger causal relationship between Business Education graduate output and both entrepreneurial enterprise formation and financial inclusion rates, but no significant relationship with aggregate GDP growth in the short run. Lagged effects (four to six years) were significant for employment outcomes. The study makes an original longitudinal empirical contribution and recommends evidence-based Business Education investment targeting financial inclusion and enterprise formation as policy priorities. Keywords: longitudinal analysis, Business Education, graduate outcomes, economic development, Nigeria