Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Female Education and Fertility Transition in North West Nigeria

The demographic transition in North West Nigeria is slower than other zones, and empirically characterising the relationship between female educational expansion and fertility decline provides evidence for targeted demographic policy. This study empirically examined the relationship between female secondary school net enrolment rates and state-level total fertility rates across Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, and Jigawa States from 2010 to 2022. A panel data regression design was employed, using NBS Labour Force Survey education data, NDHS TFR estimates, and state Ministry of Education enrolment records. Fixed-effects and random-effects panel regression models were compared using the Hausman specification test. The fixed-effects model was preferred and showed a significant negative relationship between female secondary enrolment and total fertility rate, with a one percentage point increase in female enrolment associated with a 0.12 reduction in TFR (p < 0.001). The education-fertility effect was strongest in states with higher urbanisation rates. Contraceptive prevalence rate mediated approximately 38 percent of the education-TFR relationship. The Oaxaca decomposition confirmed that the majority of cross-state TFR variation was explained by differences in female education rather than religion or ethnicity after controlling for wealth. The study fills an important empirical gap in North West Nigeria's fertility transition literature and recommends female secondary school investment as the highest-return demographic policy instrument for northern states. Keywords: female education, fertility transition, North West Nigeria, panel data, total fertility rate