Empirical Analysis of the Contribution of Migration to Urban Population Growth in Kano State

Urban population growth in Nigerian cities results from both natural increase and in-migration, and empirically decomposing these contributions in Kano State provides evidence for urban planning and migration management policy. This study empirically decomposed the contribution of natural increase and net migration to urban population growth in Kano Metropolitan Area (comprising Kano Municipal, Nassarawa, Fagge, Dala, and Gwale LGAs) from 2006 to 2022. Demographic decomposition methodology was applied using NBS population estimates, NDHS age-specific fertility and mortality rates, and a purpose-designed migrant survey of 800 recent in-migrants to Kano city. Natural increase rate was estimated at 3.1 percent annually, while the contribution from net in-migration was estimated at approximately 1.4 percent annually, together producing an estimated urban growth rate of 4.5 percent. Migration contributed an estimated 31.1 percent of total urban population growth over the study period. Migrants predominantly originated from rural Kano State (44.3 percent) and neighbouring Katsina and Jigawa States (28.7 percent). Economic opportunity was the primary migration driver (71.3 percent). Recent migrants showed significantly higher unemployment than long-term residents, creating urban labour market pressure. The study fills an empirical gap in Kano urban demography and recommends that city planners account for migration in population projections, and that rural development investment in source regions be considered as an indirect urban congestion management measure.

Keywords: urban population growth, migration contribution, Kano State, demographic decomposition, urbanisation