Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Conflict on Demographic Indicators in Plateau State

Ethno-religious conflict in Plateau State has disrupted demographic processes including fertility, mortality, and migration, and empirically quantifying these demographic effects provides evidence for recovery and reconciliation programming. This study empirically analysed the demographic effects of recurring conflict on fertility, under-five mortality, and displacement rates in Plateau State using a natural experiment approach comparing conflict-affected and control LGAs. Demographic data from four conflict-affected LGAs (Barkin Ladi, Riyom, Bassa, Mangu) were compared with four matched non-conflict LGAs using difference-in-differences regression applied to NDHS and NBS data from 2008 to 2021. Conflict exposure was associated with a statistically significant increase in under-five mortality (increase of 21 per 1,000 live births, p < 0.01) and a fertility decline (TFR decrease of 0.8 points, p < 0.05), consistent with crisis fertility response theory. Displacement rates increased by an estimated 34 per 1,000 per major conflict episode. Antenatal care utilisation declined by 18.4 percentage points in conflict years relative to pre-conflict levels. Contraceptive prevalence showed no significant conflict effect. The study provides original empirical evidence on conflict demography for Plateau State and recommends incorporating conflict-sensitive demographic monitoring into the Plateau State reconciliation and recovery programme, prioritising restoration of healthcare access in previously conflict-affected LGAs. Keywords: conflict demography, Plateau State, demographic effects, natural experiment, violence and fertility