Analytical Study of the Research Gap in Demographic Methods for Conflict-Affected Population Enumeration in Nigeria

Standard population enumeration methods are unreliable in conflict-affected settings where access is restricted, populations are mobile, and administrative records are destroyed, yet alternatives adapted for Nigerian conflict contexts have received minimal methodological attention. This study analytically examined the research gap in demographic methods for conflict-affected population enumeration in North East and North West Nigeria through systematic review and original methodological analysis. A systematic scoping review identified 29 publications from 2018 to 2024 on conflict-affected population enumeration methods in sub-Saharan Africa, of which only 5 specifically evaluated methods applied in Nigerian conflict zones. Original analysis compared four estimation approaches (rapid community key informant assessment, satellite imagery-based settlement counting, administrative displacement registry extrapolation, and random GPS cluster survey) applied to the same target population in Borno State, generating divergent estimates with a range of 34 percent around the mean. The satellite and random GPS cluster approaches showed the highest internal consistency. Key informant approaches systematically overestimated population in communities with strong community leaders and underestimated in dispersed settlements. The study identifies critical methodological gaps and proposes an original Mixed Methods Population Estimation Protocol (MMPEP) for conflict-affected Nigerian settings that combines satellite imagery with rapid cluster surveys. Recommendations include IOM, OCHA, and NPopC adopting the MMPEP protocol for IDP population estimates in North East and North West humanitarian contexts.

Keywords: conflict population enumeration, methodology, North East Nigeria, IDP estimation, demographic methods