Analytical Study of the Research Gap in Mortality Data Quality in Nigeria’s Northern States

Mortality data quality in northern Nigeria is substantially lower than in southern states due to lower civil registration completeness, higher home death rates, and cultural barriers to official death reporting, creating a significant gap in the national vital statistics evidence base. This study analytically examined the research gap in mortality data quality in the North West and North East geopolitical zones through systematic review and original assessment. A systematic scoping review identified 16 publications from 2018 to 2024 on mortality data quality assessment in northern Nigeria, of which only 4 provided state-specific registration completeness estimates and none assessed the distribution of death under-registration across sociodemographic groups. Original assessment applied demographic indirect estimation techniques (the Brass growth balance method and synthetic extinct generations) to population and deaths data from five northern states to estimate registration completeness. Death registration completeness was estimated between 18 and 37 percent across the five states, significantly below southern state benchmarks. Home deaths, which are predominant in rural northern communities, were estimated to be registered at rates below 10 percent. Neonatal death under-registration was the most severe quality gap, affecting infant mortality rate reliability. The study identifies three research priorities: mortality registration completeness by cause of death in rural northern LGAs, evaluation of community-based death reporter systems, and validation of indirect mortality estimation techniques for conflict-disrupted populations. Recommendations include NPopC piloting a community death reporter system in two northern states.

Keywords: mortality data quality, northern Nigeria, death registration, demographic estimation, vital statistics