Empirical Study of the Demographic Consequences of Banditry on Zamfara State Communities

Armed banditry in Zamfara State has produced demographic consequences including excess mortality, fertility disruption, forced displacement, and educational deprivation that constitute a significant crisis deserving empirical documentation. This study empirically assessed the demographic consequences of banditry on communities in Bungudu, Shinkafi, and Zurmi Local Government Areas, Zamfara State, North West Nigeria. A mixed-methods design combined a cross-sectional household survey of 360 conflict-affected households with key informant interviews from 15 community and local government officials. Survey data covered excess deaths in the preceding two years attributable to bandit attacks, displacement history, school dropout due to conflict, fertility intentions changes, and welfare impacts. An estimated 4.8 deaths per 100 household members had occurred in the preceding two years above the expected mortality level. Women reported significantly reduced fertility intentions since the onset of banditry, with 62.3 percent indicating they wanted fewer children than before the conflict. School attendance had declined by 47.6 percentage points since 2019 among children in surveyed communities. Population displacement was estimated at 28.3 percent of the original community population over the study period. Agricultural land abandonment affected 73.6 percent of farming households. The study provides original empirical evidence on the demographic consequences of banditry, filling a critical gap in North West Nigeria's conflict demography research, and recommends conflict-sensitive demographic surveys in Zamfara State with UNICEF and UNFPA support.

Keywords: banditry, demographic consequences, Zamfara State, conflict demography, North West Nigeria