A Complex Systems Approach to Understanding Economic Growth Dynamics in Nigeria

Economic growth in Nigeria exhibits non-linear, path-dependent, and emergent properties that conventional equilibrium growth models inadequately capture, and developing an original complex systems approach to Nigerian growth dynamics constitutes a major methodological and theoretical contribution to development economics. This study developed and applied a complex systems framework to understand economic growth dynamics in Nigeria from 1970 to 2023. A multi-method complexity science methodology was employed, combining agent-based modelling calibrated to Nigeria's production and trade structure, network analysis of sectoral economic linkages using input-output tables, and nonlinear time series analysis of the growth trajectory. The agent-based model specified four agent types: firms, households, government, and financial intermediaries, each with adaptive behavioural rules derived from Nigerian institutional realities. Simulation results confirmed highly path-dependent growth dynamics, with oil sector dominance creating self-reinforcing lock-in preventing diversification. Network analysis of the 2018 Nigerian supply-use table confirmed that the economy had a hub-and-spoke structure with oil as the primary hub, creating systemic vulnerability. Nonlinear time series analysis confirmed evidence of regime switching, with the economy exhibiting two stable growth regimes (oil-boom and oil-bust) with asymmetric transition dynamics. The original Complex Systems Economic Growth Framework for Nigeria identifies four systemic leverage points for growth acceleration. Expert review by 22 complexity economics and development specialists confirmed the framework's original methodological and theoretical contribution. Recommendations include scenario planning and systems thinking integration into Nigerian development planning.

Keywords: complex systems, economic growth, agent-based model, Nigeria, nonlinear dynamics