A Theoretical Framework for Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Digitalisation in Nigeria

Digitalisation of Nigeria's economy through fintech, e-commerce, and digital platform expansion is transforming production, labour, and financial markets in ways that existing macroeconomic frameworks were not designed to theorise, and developing an original framework for understanding digitalisation's macroeconomic effects constitutes an important contemporary contribution to development economics. This study developed an original Macroeconomic Effects of Digitalisation Framework for Nigeria, drawing on digital economy theory, Nigerian economic structure analysis, and primary empirical research. A constructive theoretical methodology combining systematic review of 82 digitalisation and macroeconomics publications from 2018 to 2024, original structural analysis of Nigeria's digital economy using NITDA and CBN data, and empirical estimation of digitalisation's output, employment, and inequality effects using a panel of 36 states from 2015 to 2022 was employed. Panel analysis confirmed that mobile internet penetration (a primary digitalisation proxy) was positively associated with state-level economic activity (+0.38 per percentage point increase, p < 0.001) and formal employment (+0.24, p < 0.01) but showed a significant positive association with income inequality (Gini coefficient +0.008 per percentage point, p < 0.05), suggesting a polarising distributional effect. The original framework proposes five macroeconomic transmission channels specific to Nigeria's digitalisation context: financial disintermediation efficiency, labour market formalisation, productivity spillovers, platform market concentration, and data-driven government revenue enhancement. Expert review by 24 digital economics specialists confirmed the framework's original contribution. Recommendations include regulatory frameworks capturing digital economy efficiency gains while mitigating inequality effects. Keywords: digitalisation, macroeconomics, Nigeria, digital economy, fintech