Developing an Original Theory of Economic Resilience in Shock-Prone Nigerian Communities

Economic resilience, the capacity of communities to absorb and recover from economic shocks, is especially important in Nigeria's shock-prone rural communities, yet its theoretical foundations as an economic concept adapted for the Nigerian rural context remain underdeveloped. Developing an original theory of economic resilience in such communities constitutes a significant contribution to both resilience economics and Nigerian rural development theory. This study developed an original Economic Resilience Theory for Shock-Prone Nigerian Rural Communities, drawing on resilience economics, complexity theory, and empirical research across communities exposed to different shock types (climate, conflict, commodity price, and macroeconomic). A constructive theoretical methodology combining systematic review of 72 economic resilience publications from 2018 to 2024, multi-site empirical research in 24 communities across Plateau, Kebbi, Borno, and Delta States, and expert consultation with 24 development and resilience economists was employed. Community-level resilience indicators were operationalised across absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, and transformative capacity dimensions. Empirical analysis confirmed significant variation in resilience capacity across communities exposed to equivalent shocks, with diversified livelihood systems, strong cooperative social capital, and connectivity to external markets as the strongest resilience predictors. The original Nigerian Rural Economic Resilience Framework proposes five resilience building blocks: asset-base diversity, institutional redundancy, information access, market connectivity, and transformative agency. Each building block includes measurable indicators and policy support specifications. Expert review by 22 resilience and development economists confirmed the framework's original theoretical contribution. Recommendations include resilience-indexed social protection targeting.

Keywords: economic resilience, shock-prone communities, rural Nigeria, resilience theory, original contribution