Empirical Analysis of Environmental Governance Effectiveness in Nigeria’s Protected Area Network

This study empirically analyses the effectiveness of environmental governance in Nigeria's network of protected areas, examining the institutional, financial, and social factors that differentiate better-governed from worse-governed protected areas across the six geopolitical zones. Nigeria's protected area network, encompassing national parks, game reserves, and forest reserves, is widely acknowledged to be poorly managed, but systematic comparative evidence on the governance factors most strongly associated with better ecological outcomes has not been generated at the national scale. The study employs a mixed-methods design combining a structured governance quality assessment survey administered to managers and staff at eighteen protected areas across all six zones with ecological outcome data derived from satellite-based vegetation productivity monitoring and community interview data on wildlife and biodiversity trends. Governance quality is measured using a multi-dimensional protocol covering clarity of mandate, staff capacity, financial adequacy, monitoring systems, stakeholder engagement, and law enforcement. Regression analysis examines governance dimensions as predictors of ecological outcome quality. Results indicate that staff capacity and funding adequacy are the strongest positive predictors of ecological outcome quality across the protected area sample, followed by community co-management arrangement quality. Protected areas with formal co-management agreements involving adjacent communities show 22 percent better vegetation recovery trajectories over five years than comparable areas without such arrangements. The study identifies a cluster of five critically under-resourced protected areas requiring emergency intervention. Recommendations include a performance-based protected area funding mechanism and a national co-management policy standard. Keywords: protected area governance, environmental management, Nigeria, ecological outcomes, co-management.