Empirical Assessment of the Effectiveness of Community-Based Natural Resource Management in the Middle Belt States

This study empirically assesses the effectiveness of community-based natural resource management programmes in reducing land degradation and maintaining natural resource productivity in the Middle Belt states of North Central Nigeria, specifically examining programmes in Benue, Kogi, Plateau, and Nasarawa States. Community-based natural resource management is promoted as a cost-effective and equity-enhancing approach to environmental governance in rural Africa, but rigorous outcome evaluation of specific programmes in the Nigerian context is scarce. The study employs a quasi-experimental design comparing twelve communities participating in formal CBNRM programmes with twelve matched comparison communities without such programmes. Programme effectiveness is measured using five-year NDVI trends from satellite imagery as a proxy for vegetation cover and land productivity, supplemented by structured interviews with 60 community leaders on natural resource condition trends, rule compliance, and conflict over resource use. Propensity score matching is used to improve comparability between programme and comparison communities. Results show that CBNRM communities demonstrate significantly more positive NDVI trends over the study period than comparison communities, with a mean difference of 0.06 NDVI units. This difference is statistically significant and robust to model specification. Community-reported natural resource condition trends are more positive in programme communities across all four natural resource domains assessed. Compliance with community resource management rules is high in ten of twelve programme communities. The study provides empirical support for CBNRM effectiveness in the Middle Belt context. Recommendations include scaling CBNRM support through the Ecological Fund to all eligible communities in the four states. Keywords: community-based natural resource management, land degradation, Middle Belt, CBNRM effectiveness, vegetation recovery.