Analysing the Drivers of Environmental Degradation in Nigeria’s Sahel Zone: A Multi-Variable Empirical Study

This study empirically analyses the relative contribution of climatic, demographic, economic, and institutional drivers to environmental degradation in Nigeria's Sahel zone, covering the northern sections of Sokoto, Katsina, Jigawa, Borno, and Yobe States. Understanding the relative contribution of climate variability versus human activity to environmental degradation in the Sahel is essential for designing effective management responses, yet multi-variable empirical analysis that jointly tests these drivers using longitudinal data for the Nigerian Sahel is absent from the literature. A panel dataset was constructed for 45 Local Government Areas in the five Sahel-bordering states, incorporating annual NDVI values as an environmental condition indicator derived from MODIS satellite data (2000 to 2022), rainfall data from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency, population density data from the National Population Commission, livestock density estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics, and local government agricultural revenue as a proxy for institutional capacity. Fixed-effects panel regression and dynamic panel GMM estimation models were applied. Results show that rainfall deficit is the strongest predictor of NDVI decline in the Sahel LGAs, but that population density and livestock density each explain significant additional variance after controlling for rainfall. Institutional capacity, proxied by LGA revenue, has a significant positive association with NDVI trends, suggesting that better-resourced LGAs maintain environmental conditions more effectively. The interaction of drought periods with high livestock density produces the most severe degradation events. Recommendations include strengthening Sahel LGA institutional capacity and implementing drought-responsive livestock management protocols. Keywords: environmental degradation, Sahel zone, drivers analysis, panel data, North Nigeria.