Empirical Study of Environmental Degradation and Conflict Linkages in the North Central Zone of Nigeria

This study empirically examines the relationship between environmental degradation and the occurrence of farmer-herder and communal conflicts in Nigeria's North Central geopolitical zone, contributing to the debate on environment-conflict linkages in a region experiencing both severe land degradation and escalating resource-based violence. The relationship between environmental stress and conflict has theoretical support but empirical verification for specific Nigerian contexts is scarce, and environmental management policy requires evidence on whether and how environmental degradation translates into conflict probability. A panel dataset was constructed for 52 Local Government Areas across Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kwara, and Niger States, incorporating annual vegetation condition data from MODIS NDVI, rainfall anomaly data from the Climate Research Unit, conflict event data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, population density from the National Population Commission, and poverty rate estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Dynamic panel GMM regression and Granger causality tests examine temporal relationships between environmental and conflict variables. Results show a statistically significant negative relationship between NDVI trends and conflict event frequency in the following year, indicating that environmental deterioration predicts increased conflict with a one-year lag. The relationship is stronger in LGAs with higher livestock density and lower per capita income. Rainfall deficit amplifies the environment-conflict relationship. The study provides empirical support for incorporating environmental management into conflict prevention policy. Recommendations include an integrated environment-conflict early warning system for North Central LGAs and prioritising environmental rehabilitation in high-conflict-risk areas. Keywords: environment-conflict, land degradation, farmer-herder conflict, North Central Nigeria, panel data.