A Longitudinal Study of Real Estate Cycle Dynamics and Investment Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa with Nigerian Case Evidence

This dissertation constructs a comprehensive longitudinal study of real estate market cycle dynamics across Sub-Saharan African economies, using Nigeria as the primary case evidence alongside comparative analysis from Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, to develop and test a theoretical model of cycle generation and propagation in emerging African property markets. Property market cycles in Sub-Saharan Africa are less studied than those in more mature markets, yet they have important consequences for investment decisions, financial system stability, and urban development patterns. The dissertation assembles the most comprehensive long-run dataset yet constructed for Nigerian commercial and residential property market performance, spanning twenty-two years of quarterly data from 2002 to 2023, drawing on NIESV market reports, Central Bank publications, primary estate surveyor data, and new primary data collection from archival sources. Time series decomposition, spectral analysis, and Markov regime-switching models are applied to identify and characterise cycle phases. A theoretical model of cycle generation in the African context incorporates oil revenue volatility as a fundamental demand driver, foreign exchange dynamics as a cost and sentiment factor, and construction supply rigidity as the primary mechanism amplifying demand shocks into persistent cycles. Cross-country comparison with Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa tests the generalisability of the Nigerian cycle model and identifies Africa-specific versus country-specific cycle drivers. Original contributions include the theoretical African property cycle model, the assembled dataset, and the cross-country cycle comparison evidence. Recommendations for cycle-aware investment strategy and counter-cyclical macroprudential policy are developed. Keywords: real estate cycles, investment performance, Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria, longitudinal analysis.