Towards a Theory of Housing Market Segmentation in Nigeria and Its Implications for Policy Design

This dissertation develops a comprehensive theory of housing market segmentation in Nigeria, making original contributions to the conceptualisation, measurement, and policy implications of market segmentation in a large, diverse, and institutionally complex national housing market. Housing market segmentation theory in the international literature identifies various bases for market division including geography, income, tenure, property type, and neighbourhood quality, but the specific segmentation structure of Nigerian housing markets, where formal-informal duality, income stratification, ethnic and religious geographic sorting, and regional diversity interact to produce a uniquely complex segmented market, has not been theoretically modelled. The dissertation constructs an original Nigerian Housing Market Segmentation Theory through three analytical phases: a qualitative mapping of segmentation dimensions through interviews with 100 estate professionals across all six geopolitical zones; formal model construction drawing on urban economics, housing search theory, and matching theory to represent how the identified segmentation dimensions interact in the Nigerian housing market; and empirical validation using large-scale housing survey data from the National Bureau of Statistics, supplemented by primary data collection in Lagos, Kano, and Enugu. Statistical analysis using latent class analysis and spatial clustering methods identifies the actual market segments present in the three cities and characterises their spatial, economic, and social properties. The theoretical framework generates predictions about how policy interventions interact with the segmented market structure, yielding distinct recommendations from non-segmented analysis. Particular attention is given to how social housing programmes must be designed to reach the intended segment rather than being captured by higher market segments. Keywords: housing market segmentation, segmentation theory, housing policy, Nigeria, latent class analysis.