Real Estate and Sustainable Urban Development: Theoretical Foundations and Evidence from Nigerian Green Building Markets

This dissertation develops a theoretical framework for the relationship between real estate market dynamics and sustainable urban development, and empirically investigates the nascent green building market in Nigeria, examining the conditions under which green property development emerges, the market premiums it commands, and the policy frameworks that can accelerate the transition to more sustainable real estate production and consumption. Real estate is simultaneously one of the primary drivers of urban environmental impact and a critical medium through which sustainable urban development is physically realised, yet the theoretical integration of real estate market analysis with sustainability transition theory is underdeveloped, particularly for the Nigerian and broader Sub-Saharan African context. The theoretical contribution is an original Real Estate Sustainability Transition Framework that integrates real estate market economics with sociotechnical transition theory, modelling how niche green building innovations can challenge and eventually transform the dominant conventional construction and property development regime in Nigeria. The framework identifies the actor configurations, institutional conditions, and market incentive structures required for the transition. Empirical research examines Nigeria's green building market through three studies: an expert interview study with 40 developers, architects, engineers, and investors involved in green building projects in Lagos and Abuja; a hedonic price analysis of green building certification premiums using a uniquely assembled dataset of 180 certified and comparable uncertified commercial buildings; and a policy analysis of how existing Nigerian building regulations, financial incentives, and professional standards support or hinder the sustainability transition. Results show modest but statistically significant rental premiums for certified green commercial buildings, averaging 8 to 12 percent, concentrated in buildings occupied by multinational corporate tenants with ESG commitments. Keywords: sustainable real estate, green building, transition theory, property market, Nigeria.