A Longitudinal Study of Agile Transformation and Organisational Performance in Nigerian Banks: Causal Mechanisms and Contextual Conditions

Agile transformation in banking is widely pursued as a route to improved organizational performance, yet longitudinal causal evidence from Nigerian banking contexts is absent. This study examines the causal mechanisms linking agile transformation to organisational performance in Nigerian commercial banks through a longitudinal study design. A three-year longitudinal design will track agile transformation progress in six Nigerian banks including GTBank, Zenith Bank, and Access Bank, collecting panel data at baseline, 18 months, and 36 months. Agile maturity will be assessed using the Business Agility Institute (BAI) framework. Performance indicators including product launch speed, IT project delivery rates, operational efficiency, and customer satisfaction will be measured at each wave. Process-tracing qualitative interviews with 40 transformation leads will identify causal mechanisms. Mixed-effects longitudinal regression will analyze panel data. This study generates Nigeria's first longitudinal empirical evidence on banking agile transformation outcomes, providing causal insight beyond the cross-sectional snapshots that dominate existing literature. Findings will guide Nigeria's Central Bank in digital transformation oversight. Keywords: agile transformation, organisational performance, commercial banks, longitudinal, Nigeria