A Theoretical Framework for Demographic Responses to Climate Change in Nigerian Dryland Zones

Climate change interacts with demographic processes in dryland zones through its effects on livelihoods, conflict, and habitability, and developing an original theoretical framework for these interactions in the specific ecological and demographic context of Nigerian dryland zones constitutes a significant contribution to population-environment theory. This study developed an original Demographic-Climate Interaction Framework for Nigerian Dryland Zones, drawing on population-environment theory, empirical case analysis, and expert consultation. A constructive theoretical methodology was employed: systematic review of 78 climate-demography publications from 2018 to 2024, empirical analysis of multi-year demographic and climate data for Lake Chad Basin communities in Borno, Yobe, and Jigawa States, and expert consultation with 25 demographers, climate scientists, and development economists. Systematic review confirmed that existing climate-demography theories inadequately theorise the interaction between climate change, pastoral mobility traditions, conflict, and forced displacement in dryland Africa. The original Dryland Demographic-Climate Framework proposes four interaction pathways: climate-induced livelihood disruption leading to rural-urban migration, climate-exacerbated resource competition driving displacement, climate habitability decline generating out-migration, and climate recovery attracting return migration. The framework introduces the concept of Demographic Climate Debt, describing the accumulated population vulnerability from successive climate-demographic disruption cycles that reduce recovery capacity. Expert review by 20 population-environment and demography specialists confirmed the framework's original theoretical contribution. The study recommends the framework guide climate adaptation programming in Nigeria's northern dryland states.

Keywords: climate change, demographic response, dryland zones, Nigeria, population-environment theory