Developing an Original Demographic Model for Estimating the True Burden of Internal Displacement in Nigeria

Nigeria's internal displacement statistics are contested and inconsistent across reporting agencies, and developing an original demographic model for estimating the true burden of displacement, including under-enumerated cases, provides an important methodological contribution to humanitarian demography. This study developed an original demographic model for estimating the total burden of internal displacement in Nigeria, addressing the significant undercount in official IDP statistics. A methodology development approach combining demographic estimation theory, field validation, and model testing was employed over 18 months. The model was developed through three phases: systematic review of IDP enumeration methodology literature (38 publications from 2018 to 2024), field validation surveys in six displacement contexts across Borno, Zamfara, and Plateau States comparing self-settled versus camp-based populations and registered versus unregistered cases, and model specification and testing. The model integrates four data inputs: official agency registration data, household survey displacement prevalence estimates, community-based key informant assessments, and satellite settlement analysis. A Bayesian synthesis procedure combines the four inputs with uncertainty weighting. Application to Borno State produced an estimated total IDP population 2.4 times higher than official IDMC statistics, driven by self-settled unregistered cases. The original Total Displacement Burden Estimation Model (TDBE-Nigeria) constitutes a significant methodological contribution. Expert review by 18 displacement statistics and demography specialists confirmed the model's originality. Recommendations include NEMA adopting the TDBE model for annual national displacement burden reporting.

Keywords: internal displacement, demographic model, IDP enumeration, Nigeria, Bayesian synthesis