A Theoretical Framework for Sustainable Urban Mobility Transitions in Sub-Saharan African Megacities: Evidence from Lagos

The transition to sustainable urban mobility in sub-Saharan African megacities demands theoretical frameworks that account for the distinctive institutional, economic, and infrastructural conditions of the Global South, rather than uncritical transplantation of Northern European sustainability transition models. This study develops and empirically grounds a contextualised theoretical framework for sustainable urban mobility transitions, using Lagos as the primary case and drawing supplementary evidence from Nairobi, Accra, and Johannesburg. The research employs a constructivist grounded theory methodology, combining 60 expert interviews, five institutional ethnographies, and longitudinal transport data analysis covering a 15-year period. The study critically engages with the multi-level perspective on sociotechnical transitions, the mobility as a service paradigm, and the capabilities approach to transport justice, synthesising their insights within a new analytical framework designated the Contextualised African Mobility Transition model. The framework identifies five transition levers specific to the Lagos context: informal sector integration pathways, political economy of transport rent redistribution, climate finance accessibility, digital infrastructure readiness, and community mobility co-production. The study generates original theoretical contributions by demonstrating that informality functions as both a barrier and a latent resource for mobility transitions and that conventional transition management tools require substantial adaptation to navigate the political economy of transport governance in Lagos. The framework advances transport management theory for mega-urban environments across sub-Saharan Africa and offers a replicable analytical template for comparative urban mobility transition research. Keywords: sustainable mobility transition, Lagos, theoretical framework, sub-Saharan Africa, urban transport.