Developing an Original Welfare Analysis Framework for Evaluating Nigeria’s Social Protection Architecture

Nigeria's social protection architecture includes multiple overlapping programmes of varied design, targeting, and delivery modality, and developing an original welfare analysis framework for comprehensive evaluation of this architecture provides both a theoretical contribution and a practical policy instrument. This study developed an original Welfare Analysis Framework for Nigeria's Social Protection Architecture, drawing on welfare economics, social protection evaluation theory, and empirical assessment of programme interactions. A multi-phase theoretical development and empirical grounding methodology was employed. Phase 1 reviewed 68 social protection welfare analysis publications (2018 to 2024), identifying gaps in multi-programme interaction analysis and in welfare measurement beyond consumption impacts. Phase 2 conducted original empirical welfare analysis using NLSS 2022 data combined with National Social Register data, estimating programme-specific welfare impacts and interaction effects using a micro-simulation model. Phase 3 synthesised findings into the original framework through expert consultation with 25 social protection and welfare economists. The micro-simulation analysis confirmed programme stack effects, where households receiving multiple transfers showed welfare gains non-linearly exceeding individual programme effects, suggesting complementarity. The original framework proposes five welfare dimensions: consumption adequacy, investment enabling, shock-coping capacity, social dignity preservation, and capability development. Each dimension includes programme-specific indicators and a cross-programme welfare score. Expert review confirmed the framework's original contribution. Recommendations include architecture-wide welfare monitoring using the proposed multi-dimensional framework and programme coherence review.

Keywords: welfare analysis, social protection, Nigeria, micro-simulation, programme evaluation