A Theory of Adaptive Project Governance for Public Infrastructure Delivery in Fragile State Contexts: Evidence from North East Nigeria

Conventional project governance theories assume institutional stability that is absent in fragile state contexts, creating a theoretical gap that limits their applicability to post-conflict North East Nigeria. This study develops an original theory of adaptive project governance for public infrastructure delivery in fragile state contexts using North East Nigeria as a theoretical case. A grounded theory methodology will recruit 50 purposively selected project governance actors including project directors, World Bank supervision consultants, state government officials, security advisors, and community leaders from infrastructure projects in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe States. Theoretical sampling will guide iterative in-depth interviews and focus groups until saturation. Constant comparative analysis will generate substantive and formal theoretical propositions. The emergent theory is expected to incorporate adaptive accountability mechanisms, flexible decision rights structures, and community trust as governance pillars specific to fragile environments. Existing project governance theory, derived from stable institutional contexts, does not accommodate security disruptions, government capacity gaps, and community displacement as governance variables. This study constitutes an original theoretical contribution to project governance literature with direct applicability to humanitarian and post-conflict infrastructure programming across West Africa. Keywords: adaptive project governance, fragile states, infrastructure, North East Nigeria, grounded theory