Actuarial Analysis of Maternal Mortality Risk and Its Implications for Life Insurance in Northern Nigeria

This study conducts an actuarial analysis of maternal mortality risk in northern Nigeria and examines its implications for life insurance product design and pricing for women of childbearing age. Nigeria has one of the highest maternal mortality ratios in the world, with the North West and North East zones recording rates substantially above the national average. This elevated mortality risk has direct implications for the actuarial assumptions used in pricing life insurance products for women in these regions, yet most insurers apply undifferentiated pricing without regional maternal mortality adjustments. This study uses maternal mortality data from the National Demographic and Health Survey, UNICEF reports, and health management information systems in Kano, Sokoto, and Bauchi States for the period 2018 to 2023. Regional maternal mortality ratios are incorporated into multi-state life table models to estimate adjusted female mortality rates by age cohort. The financial impact of ignoring regional maternal mortality differentials on life insurance pricing adequacy is quantified. Findings reveal that applying national average female mortality rates in northern states underestimates actual mortality by 18 to 35 percent for women aged 15 to 45, leading to significant premium inadequacy for this demographic. The study concludes that regionally differentiated mortality tables are essential for actuarially sound life insurance pricing for women in northern Nigeria. It recommends that NAICOM mandate regional mortality adjustments in product pricing submissions for life covers targeting female demographics.

Keywords: maternal mortality, life insurance, northern Nigeria, mortality tables, actuarial pricing.