Analysis of Inflation Trends and Their Effects on Household Purchasing Power in Kano State

Inflation erodes household purchasing power and disproportionately affects lower-income populations, and analysing its trend and impact in North West Nigeria provides locally grounded evidence for monetary policy evaluation. This study analysed inflation trends and their effects on household purchasing power in Kano Municipal and Nassarawa Local Government Areas, Kano State, between 2018 and 2023. Secondary data on consumer price indices were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics and primary survey data were collected from 300 households. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and regression were applied. Results showed an average annual inflation rate of 14.7 percent over the study period, with food inflation averaging 16.3 percent. Household purchasing power declined progressively, with the real value of average household income falling by an estimated 21.4 percent over five years. Low-income households experienced disproportionately greater purchasing power losses due to their higher food expenditure share. The correlation between food price inflation and household food expenditure reduction was strong and significant (r = 0.78, p < 0.001). Tradeable food items showed higher volatility than non-tradeable equivalents. The study concludes that chronic inflation is systematically impoverishing Kano State households, particularly those in the lower income quintiles. Recommendations include strengthening CBN monetary policy transmission mechanisms, improving domestic food supply chains to reduce food price volatility, and expanding targeted social protection programmes to cushion the poorest households against inflation-driven purchasing power erosion. Keywords: inflation, purchasing power, household welfare, Kano State, consumer price index