Analysis of Public Expenditure on Education and Its Effect on Human Capital Development in Borno State

Public expenditure on education is the principal mechanism through which government builds human capital, and analysing its trend and effectiveness in post-conflict Borno State addresses a critical question for North East Nigeria's recovery. This study analysed public expenditure on education and its relationship to human capital indicators in Borno State between 2014 and 2022. Secondary data were obtained from the Borno State Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Education, and NBS Education Statistics. Time series analysis and descriptive statistics were applied, with human capital indicators including net enrolment rate, teacher-pupil ratio, and literacy rate serving as dependent variables. Results showed that education expenditure averaged 11.2 percent of total state budget over the study period, below the UNESCO 20 percent benchmark. Conflict disruption reduced effective education expenditure delivery by an estimated 30 percent in affected LGAs between 2014 and 2018. Net enrolment in primary education declined significantly during peak conflict years despite increased nominal budget allocations. Post-2018 education spending recovery correlated positively with improved net enrolment (r = 0.74, p < 0.01). Per-pupil expenditure remained far below the national average throughout. The study concludes that conflict damage to physical and social infrastructure significantly reduces the effectiveness of education spending in Borno State. Recommendations include conflict-sensitive education expenditure targeting, prioritising school reconstruction alongside teacher deployment, and NEDC-funded supplementary education financing for the North East zone. Keywords: public education expenditure, human capital, Borno State, conflict, enrolment