Analytical Study of the Impact of Gas Pipeline Vandalism on Energy Supply in the South South Geopolitical Zone

Gas pipeline vandalism remains one of the most disruptive and persistent threats to energy supply security in Nigeria's South South geopolitical zone, yet its systemic economic and social drivers have received insufficient analytical attention in the gas engineering literature. This study conducts an analytical investigation of the impact of pipeline vandalism on gas supply in the South South zone, drawing on incident data from Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, and Akwa Ibom states, and examining both the proximate and structural determinants of vandalism activity. The research employs a mixed-method analytical approach combining quantitative analysis of NUPRC incident records (2018 to 2023), geospatial mapping of incident clustering, and qualitative analysis of 45 semi-structured interviews with community leaders, security operatives, and pipeline operators. The study estimates the economic value of gas supply losses attributable to vandalism-induced outages and quantifies the downstream power generation, industrial production, and commercial losses. A structural equation model is developed to test hypothesised relationships between community development indicators, unemployment rates, historical crude oil spill incidents, and vandalism frequency at the LGA level. Findings reveal that communities with the highest vandalism rates exhibit statistically significantly lower composite development index scores and higher youth unemployment rates, supporting a political economy interpretation of vandalism as economically motivated sabotage. The study identifies a spatial clustering of high-vandalism incidents in transitional community zones between oil-producing and non-producing LGAs. Recommendations include community benefit-sharing reform tied to infrastructure proximity, collaborative surveillance programmes, and accelerated restoration of spill-affected farmland. Keywords: pipeline vandalism, gas supply, South South Nigeria, security, political economy.