Assessment of the Effects of Flooding on Residential Property Values in Lokoja, Kogi State

This study assesses the effects of recurrent flooding on residential property values in Lokoja, Kogi State, North Central Nigeria. Located at the confluence of the Niger and Benue rivers, Lokoja experiences among the most severe urban flooding in Nigeria, with annual flood events damaging properties, displacing residents, and creating significant property market distortions. The study employs a before-and-after comparative design combined with a hedonic pricing analysis. Transaction data and rental values were collected for 150 residential properties in three flood-prone neighbourhoods (Ganaja, Zango, and Crusher) and two comparatively flood-free areas (GRA and Adankolo) over a five-year period. Flood exposure data were obtained from the Kogi State Emergency Management Agency. Structured interviews were conducted with 30 estate surveyors and 50 property owners. Hedonic regression analysis estimates the market value discount associated with documented flood risk after controlling for structural and locational variables. Findings confirm a statistically significant negative price effect of flood exposure, with flood-prone residential properties valued at between 18 and 35 percent less than equivalent properties in flood-free zones. The discount widens in years following major flood events and narrows modestly in extended dry periods. Landlords in flood-prone areas supplement rental discounts with longer advance rent periods as compensation for flood disruption risk. Recommendations include mandating flood risk disclosure in property transactions, developing a flood risk map integrated into AGIS, and restricting further residential development in the highest-risk flood zones. Keywords: flooding, property values, flood risk, Lokoja, residential property.