China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Debt Sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Since 2021, the expansion of Chinese infrastructure financing across Sub-Saharan Africa has intensified debates over sovereign debt sustainability and the geopolitical implications of asymmetric lending arrangements. Rising debt distress in countries such as Zambia and Kenya has renewed scholarly attention to the structural conditions underpinning Belt and Road Initiative agreements and their long-term fiscal consequences for borrowing governments. Aims/objectives: This study examines how Belt and Road financing mechanisms influence debt vulnerability and policy autonomy among recipient African states, with particular focus on negotiation asymmetries between lender and borrower during contract formulation and renegotiation. Method: A qualitative comparative case study approach was adopted, drawing on loan contract analysis, debt sustainability reports from the IMF and World Bank, and semi-structured interviews with policy practitioners in two selected countries. Results: Findings indicate that opaque contractual terms, currency mismatches, and limited institutional capacity for debt negotiation have contributed to elevated default risk, while collateralization clauses have constrained recipient states' fiscal flexibility during economic shocks and revenue shortfalls. Renegotiation outcomes varied significantly depending on domestic governance quality and diplomatic leverage available to borrowing states. Conclusion: The study concludes that debt sustainability outcomes are shaped less by financing volume than by institutional preparedness and transparency mechanisms. Strengthening multilateral debt disclosure frameworks and recipient-side negotiation capacity is recommended to mitigate future vulnerabilities while preserving infrastructural development gains across the continent.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, debt sustainability, Sub-Saharan Africa, sovereign lending, infrastructure diplomacy