Climate Change Adaptation Governance for Coastal Fisheries in South West Nigeria: An Institutional Analysis

Effective governance of climate change adaptation in coastal fisheries requires institutional arrangements that can coordinate across scales, manage uncertainty, facilitate learning, and legitimate the interests of vulnerable fishing-dependent communities. Despite substantial literature on adaptation governance globally, the institutional analysis of climate adaptation in Nigerian coastal fisheries remains nascent, and theoretical frameworks have not been systematically tested in the West African small-scale fisheries governance context. This dissertation applies polycentric governance theory and the Institutional Analysis and Development framework to analyse the institutional architecture for climate change adaptation in coastal fisheries across four states in South West Nigeria: Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, and Ekiti. The research design employs process tracing within four comparative case studies of fishing communities representing contrasting governance configurations (state-centred, co-managed, community-governed, and governance-absent). Primary data are collected through 96 in-depth interviews with fishers, cooperative leaders, local government officers, state fisheries agency officials, federal ministry staff, and NGO representatives. Institutional mapping exercises and governance network analysis visualise the structure of multi-actor and multi-level governance arrangements. Documentary analysis covers fisheries regulations, climate adaptation plans, disaster risk reduction strategies, and development programme documentation. Cross-case comparison identifies the institutional characteristics of successful versus unsuccessful adaptation governance configurations using necessary and sufficient condition analysis. The dissertation's theoretical contribution is a Climate Adaptive Fisheries Governance Framework that integrates polycentric governance concepts with climate adaptation scholarship, applicable beyond Nigeria to small island developing states and other West African coastal countries. Keywords: climate adaptation governance, coastal fisheries, polycentric governance, Institutional Analysis, South West Nigeria