Developing a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Framework for the Nigerian Coastal Zone

Nigerian coastal communities are exposed to multiple interacting natural hazards including storm surges, coastal flooding, erosion, tsunamis (from Atlantic sources), and harmful algal blooms, yet the country lacks an integrated multi-hazard early warning system that provides actionable, timely, and community-accessible alerts for these coastal hazards. This dissertation develops and evaluates a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Framework for the Nigerian coastal zone, addressing all four components of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction framework: risk knowledge, monitoring and warning services, dissemination and communication, and preparedness and response capacity. The risk knowledge component develops probabilistic multi-hazard exposure maps for all 36 coastal local government areas, integrating storm surge, coastal flood, erosion, and harmful algal bloom hazard layer data within a geographic information system. Monitoring and warning service design specifications are derived from a technical gap analysis of existing Nigerian monitoring infrastructure (National Meteorological Agency, Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency, NIOMR biological oceanography programme) relative to World Meteorological Organization Coastal Inundation Forecasting Initiative minimum standards. A stochastic warning system performance model simulates the probability of detection, false alarm rate, and lead time for the optimised monitoring network design. Community dissemination pathways are evaluated through a randomised controlled experiment in 24 coastal communities in Ondo and Rivers States, comparing the effectiveness of SMS text alert, community radio, and face-to-face early warning committee dissemination modes in reaching vulnerable households and triggering protective action. The framework's original contribution is a Nigeria-specific Community Coastal Risk Preparedness Protocol and a financing model for sustained multi-hazard early warning operation. Keywords: multi-hazard early warning, Nigerian coast, storm surge, coastal flood, risk governance