Climate Change, Conflict, and Human Security in the Lake Chad Basin: An Original Integrated Analytical Framework

This study develops an original integrated analytical framework for understanding the nexus between climate change, conflict, and human security in the Lake Chad Basin, using transnational field evidence from Nigerian, Chadian, and Nigerien communities in the basin. The Lake Chad Basin is widely cited as a paradigmatic case of climate-security interaction, yet existing scholarly frameworks inadequately model the causal pathways and contextual mediators that translate environmental stress into violent conflict and human security collapse. Drawing on human security theory, climate-conflict literature, and recent integrated nexus studies from 2019 to 2024, the study employs a multi-country qualitative-quantitative research design. Satellite-derived climate and vegetation indices are combined with conflict incident data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project and field surveys of 420 lakeshore community households across the basin. Advanced spatial regression analysis and causal mediation analysis techniques are applied to the quantitative data, while 60 qualitative interviews with fishermen, farmers, herders, and local government officials provide contextual depth. The study generates the Climate-Conflict-Security Pathway Model, an original theoretical contribution that identifies four distinct causal pathways through which lake shrinkage interacts with governance fragility, identity mobilisation, and livelihood disruption to produce conflict and security outcomes. The model advances existing scholarship by endogenising governance quality as a dynamic mediating variable rather than a static background condition. Findings generate original policy-relevant theoretical insights for the Lake Chad Basin Commission's integrated regional development strategy. Keywords: climate change, conflict, Lake Chad Basin, human security, integrated framework