Urbanisation, Governance, and the Political Economy of Slum Formation in Nigeria’s Secondary Cities: Theoretical and Empirical Contributions

This study develops theoretical and empirical contributions to understanding the political economy of slum formation in Nigeria's rapidly growing secondary cities, including Aba, Maiduguri, Makurdi, and Ilorin. While Lagos and Abuja have attracted significant research attention, the dynamics driving informal settlement expansion in secondary Nigerian cities, where governance capacity is lower and planning institutions are weaker, remain theoretically and empirically underdeveloped. Drawing on urban political economy theory, informality studies, and recent African urban governance literature from 2019 to 2024, the study employs a multi-site comparative qualitative-quantitative research design. Satellite-derived slum boundary data from 2005 to 2023 are combined with census and state housing survey records to quantify slum expansion trajectories in each city. Political economy analysis drawing on 68 elite interviews with urban planners, elected officials, slum community leaders, property investors, and housing policy experts examines the institutional and power dynamics driving slum persistence. The study generates an original Subnational Urban Political Economy Framework that models five mechanisms producing slum lock-in: governance capacity vacancy, land market political capture, infrastructure investment rent extraction, eviction-resettlement displacement cycling, and formal housing unaffordability trap. This framework constitutes a theoretical advance over both structuralist and governance-deficit accounts of African urban informality. Findings carry implications for urban development policy in Nigeria's secondary cities and contribute to comparative urban political economy theory. Keywords: urbanisation, slum formation, urban governance, political economy, Nigerian secondary cities