Institutional Path Dependence, Policy Inheritance, and Development Transformation in Nigeria: A Historical Comparative Analysis

This study develops an original analysis of institutional path dependence, colonial policy inheritance, and the constraints on development transformation in Nigeria from 1960 to 2023, making theoretical contributions to historical institutionalism and post-colonial development studies. Persistent developmental underperformance in Nigeria has been attributed to diverse factors, but a systematic theoretical account of how colonial institutional legacies create path-dependent constraints on post-independence policy choice and capacity formation remains incomplete. Drawing on historical institutionalism, critical juncture theory, and recent post-colonial development history literature from 2019 to 2024, the study employs a comparative historical research design. Archival research spanning British Colonial Office records, early post-independence planning documents, and contemporary development policy records provides historical institutional mapping. Quantitative analysis of long-run institutional quality indicators and development outcomes from 1960 to 2023 uses World Bank historical data and Freedom House governance indices. Sixty elite interviews with development economists, economic historians, and senior retired civil servants provide interpretive depth. The study's theoretical contribution is the Colonial-Path-Development Inertia Model, which identifies four path-dependent institutional constraints: revenue extraction architecture lock-in, administrative centralism inheritance, ethnic preference institutional embedding, and educational elite reproduction, that systematically constrain transformative policy choices in post-colonial Nigeria. This model extends historical institutionalism by theorising the specific mechanisms through which colonial institutional genetics reproduce themselves in post-colonial governance settings. Keywords: path dependence, colonial institutions, development transformation, Nigeria, historical institutionalism