Complex Adaptive Systems Theory and Governance of Fragile States: A Methodological and Theoretical Contribution Using the North East Nigeria Context

This study applies complex adaptive systems theory to the governance of fragile states, using the North East Nigeria insurgency context as a methodological and theoretical laboratory for generating original contributions to fragile state governance scholarship. Conventional governance frameworks derived from stable state experiences have limited explanatory and predictive power in fragile contexts characterised by recursive violence, institutional rupture, and non-linear adaptive responses. Drawing on complexity theory, fragile state governance literature, and recent conflict-adaptive programming studies from 2019 to 2024, the study employs a theory-building qualitative research design. Agent-based modelling techniques are combined with in-depth qualitative case analysis of governance actors including state institutions, non-state armed groups, humanitarian actors, and community-based organisations in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states. Data are gathered through elite interviews with 75 governance actors and extensive field documentation from development partner programme archives. The study develops an original conceptual model, the Fragile State Adaptive Governance Framework, which identifies feedback loops, tipping points, and self-organisation properties within North East Nigeria's governance ecology. This framework constitutes a theoretical advancement over linear statebuilding models. Methodologically, the study pioneers the application of agent-based modelling to qualitative governance data in the African fragile state context. Findings carry theoretical implications for peacebuilding and statebuilding scholarship globally and generate operational recommendations for adaptive governance programming in North East Nigeria. Keywords: complex adaptive systems, fragile state governance, North East Nigeria, agent-based modelling, statebuilding