Complex Systems Analysis of Real Estate Market Dynamics in Nigerian Metropolitan Areas

This dissertation applies complex systems theory to the analysis of real estate market dynamics in Nigerian metropolitan areas, developing an agent-based modelling framework that captures the emergent, non-linear, and path-dependent properties of property market behaviour that conventional equilibrium models cannot explain. Nigerian property markets exhibit characteristics that are particularly amenable to complex systems analysis: extreme heterogeneity of agents and property types, high information asymmetry that creates self-reinforcing information cascades, strong network effects in neighbourhood price formation, and abrupt regime changes associated with macroeconomic shocks. The theoretical contribution is a Complex Real Estate Market framework that models the Nigerian property market as a complex adaptive system, identifying the agent types, interaction rules, feedback mechanisms, and emergent phenomena that produce observed market behaviour. The agent-based model is implemented in NetLogo, incorporating heterogeneous buyer, seller, developer, and intermediary agents with adaptive decision rules, spatial neighbourhood dynamics, and macroeconomic forcing functions calibrated to Nigerian conditions. Model validation uses Nigerian property market empirical data across multiple market episodes. Simulation experiments examine the effects of policy interventions including land administration reform, mortgage market expansion, transparency improvements, and supply regulation changes on emergent market outcomes. Original contributions include the theoretical CRS framework, the calibrated Nigerian property market ABM, and policy simulation results demonstrating non-linear and threshold effects of reform interventions that conventional analysis would miss. The dissertation provides the first agent-based model of a major West African property market. Keywords: complex systems, agent-based modelling, property market dynamics, Nigeria, non-linear analysis.