Coup Contagion and Regional Norm Erosion in Francophone Africa

Background: The sequence of military takeovers across Francophone West and Central African states between 2020 and 2023, including Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon, has prompted scholarly investigation into potential contagion effects and the erosion of constitutional governance norms within historically interconnected former French colonial states. Aims/objectives: This study examines whether observable patterns of coup contagion exist among Francophone African states and the structural factors that may facilitate or inhibit the diffusion of unconstitutional regime change. Method: A qualitative comparative analysis was conducted using coup timeline data, regional organization responses, and interviews with political scientists specializing in West and Central African governance covering the relevant period. Results: Findings indicate that shared grievances regarding French military presence, economic dependency through the CFA franc monetary arrangement, and perceived governance failures provided common contextual conditions across affected states, though direct causal contagion mechanisms proved difficult to establish definitively beyond demonstrative effects on military officer calculations. Regional organizational responses grew progressively less coercive as the pattern continued. Conclusion: The research concludes that shared structural grievances rather than direct contagion best explain the clustering of military takeovers within the Francophone African context. Addressing underlying governance and economic dependency concerns is recommended as a more effective long-term strategy than punitive regional responses alone.

Keywords: coup contagion, Francophone Africa, constitutional governance, CFA franc, regional norms