Designing a Demographic Dividend Realisation Strategy for Kaduna State

Kaduna State has the demographic profile for a potential dividend if appropriate investments in human capital and economic policy are made, and designing a state-specific strategy to realise this dividend provides actionable guidance for state planners. This study designed a Demographic Dividend Realisation Strategy for Kaduna State, drawing on demographic analysis, human capital assessment, and structured consultations with 20 state planning officials, 10 economists, and 8 demography specialists. The analysis combined NBS demographic estimates, education outcome data from the State Universal Basic Education Board, youth employment statistics from the NBS Labour Force Survey, and reproductive health service coverage from the NHIS database. Analysis confirmed that 56.3 percent of Kaduna State's population was below age 20, total fertility rate was estimated at 6.1, and secondary school net enrolment was 51.4 percent. The strategy designed addresses three phases of demographic transition: accelerating fertility decline through family planning investment, developing human capital through education and skills training, and absorbing the growing working-age population through economic and employment policy. Specific investments in female secondary education, comprehensive family planning programming, TVET expansion, and youth entrepreneurship financing are specified with budget implications. Expert review by ten demographic dividend and development planning specialists confirmed the strategy's technical soundness. The study recommends the strategy be incorporated into Kaduna State's Medium Term Expenditure Framework within the 2024 to 2027 planning cycle.

Keywords: demographic dividend, Kaduna State, human capital investment, fertility decline, youth employment