Professional Assessment of Nigeria’s National Social Registry Targeting Accuracy

The National Social Registry is the foundation of Nigeria's social protection system, and professional assessment of its targeting accuracy determines whether the most vulnerable households are effectively identified for programme benefits. This study assessed the targeting accuracy of the National Social Registry across six states representing all geopolitical zones: Sokoto (NW), Yobe (NE), Benue (NC), Imo (SE), Ekiti (SW), and Bayelsa (SS). A professional evaluation methodology was applied, combining Proxy Means Test validation surveys with 300 households per state (1,800 total), documentary review of NSR community listing procedures, structured interviews with 18 NSR district coordinators, and analysis of published programme targeting audit data. Inclusion error rate (non-poor households on the registry) averaged 23.4 percent across the six states, with highest rates in Lagos and Kano urban areas. Exclusion error rate (poor households missing from registry) averaged 38.7 percent, highest in remote northern communities. Community-based listing accuracy was significantly lower in states using political community representatives versus civil society intermediaries. The PMT instrument showed weaker predictive validity in pastoralist and fishing communities than in agricultural communities. Recommendations include updating the PMT instrument for diverse livelihood groups, mandating independent listing verification teams, establishing beneficiary identification appeal mechanisms, and conducting quarterly registry updates using mobile data collection.

Keywords: National Social Registry, targeting accuracy, inclusion error, exclusion error, social protection