Professional Design of a Population Projection Model for Taraba State

Accurate population projections are essential for infrastructure investment planning, social service sizing, and electoral administration in Taraba State, yet the state lacks a current sub-national projection model calibrated to its specific demographic parameters. This study designed a population projection model for Taraba State, covering the 16 Local Government Areas to 2040. A professional design methodology was applied, incorporating demographic analysis of Taraba State using 2006 census data, NBS inter-censal growth estimates, and vital statistics data, alongside structured consultations with 12 NPopC Taraba staff and planning officials and review of the UNDP/NPopC sub-national projection methodologies. The projection model designed uses the cohort-component method as the primary engine, with three fertility, two mortality, and two migration scenarios specified. Baseline demographic parameters are calibrated to Taraba State-specific TFR, infant mortality rate, and net migration estimates. The model provides LGA-level projections in five-year intervals. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for conflict-related displacement scenarios affecting northern Taraba LGAs. Expert review by eight demographic modelling specialists confirmed the model's technical soundness. The study recommends that the projection model be adopted by the Taraba State Ministry of Budget and Planning, updated with the next national census data, and used as the baseline for the next state Medium Term Development Plan demographic assumptions.

Keywords: population projection, cohort-component method, Taraba State, sub-national projection, demographic planning