Developing an Original Complexity Theory-Based Framework for Understanding Organisational Failure and Turnaround in Nigerian Conglomerates

Organisational failure and turnaround in Nigerian conglomerates cannot be adequately explained by conventional linear models of distress, and complexity theory offers a richer conceptual foundation that has not been applied to this context, creating an opportunity for original theoretical contribution. This study develops an original Complexity-Based Organisational Failure and Turnaround Framework (COFTF) for Nigerian conglomerates, drawing on complex adaptive systems theory, catastrophe theory, and organisational ecology to explain failure as a phase transition in complex adaptive systems rather than a linear decline process. The framework identifies critical complex system properties, including resilience thresholds, feedback loops, agent heterogeneity, and environmental coupling, as key determinants of failure and turnaround dynamics. A mixed-methods research design combines qualitative historical reconstruction of the failure and turnaround trajectories of eight Nigerian conglomerates (1990 to 2023) with quantitative complex systems modelling using agent-based simulation in NetLogo calibrated with company-level data. Historical cases include conglomerates from the banking, manufacturing, oil services, and retail sectors, with data from archival sources, regulatory filings, and interviews with former executives. The framework is validated against an independent test set of five additional conglomerate cases not used in framework development. COFTF correctly identifies failure-risk thresholds in 7 of 8 calibration cases and 4 of 5 test cases based on observable complexity indicators. Original contributions include the COFTF theoretical architecture, a Conglomerate System Resilience Index, and a Turnaround Trajectory Taxonomy classifying four distinct recovery pathway types observed in Nigerian conglomerates. Policy implications for the Securities and Exchange Commission and asset management companies are developed.

Keywords: organisational failure, complexity theory, Nigerian conglomerates, turnaround, agent-based modelling