Developing an Original Theory of Agricultural Transformation in Sub-Saharan African Economies with Nigerian Application

Structural transformation from subsistence agriculture to commercial farming with strong urban-rural market linkages remains an unfinished economic development agenda for Sub-Saharan Africa, and developing an original theory of agricultural transformation adapted to the specific structural conditions of the region, with empirical grounding in Nigeria, makes a significant contribution to development economics. This study developed an original Agricultural Transformation Theory for Sub-Saharan African economies, drawing on Lewis two-sector theory, structural transformation literature, and new empirical growth economics. A constructive theoretical methodology combining systematic review of 78 agricultural transformation publications from 2018 to 2024, original econometric analysis of Nigeria's agricultural sector transformation trajectory from 1980 to 2022, and expert consultation with 25 development economists was employed. The Nigerian empirical analysis used a decomposition of agricultural labour productivity growth into within-sector efficiency improvements and between-sector resource reallocation. Results confirmed that agricultural transformation in Nigeria was characterised by labour out-movement without commensurate productivity growth in either agriculture or receiving sectors (consistent with trapped structural change). The original Sub-Saharan Agricultural Transformation Framework proposes four distinctive analytical dimensions specific to the African context: premature deindustrialisation constraints on labour absorption, fragmented input markets preventing commercialisation, informational barriers to market integration, and governance failures in land and infrastructure provision. Expert review by 22 specialists confirmed the framework's original contribution. Recommendations include targeted agricultural commercialisation investment in Nigeria's food crop sub-sectors.

Keywords: agricultural transformation, structural change, Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria, original theory