ECOWAS Mediation Mechanisms and the Post-Coup Transitions in West Africa

Background: The recent wave of military takeovers in Mali, Guinea, Niger, and Burkina Faso between 2020 and 2024 has tested the effectiveness of the Economic Community of West African States in managing regional political crises through diplomatic and coercive instruments. These developments have raised fundamental questions about the durability of regional norms governing constitutional order. Aims/objectives: This research investigates the effectiveness and limitations of ECOWAS mediation strategies in negotiating civilian transitions following unconstitutional changes of government across the affected member states. Method: The study employs a comparative process-tracing methodology, analyzing official ECOWAS communiqués, summit declarations, sanctions regimes, and secondary literature on regional security cooperation across four case states between 2020 and 2024. Results: The analysis reveals that ECOWAS sanctions and suspension measures produced inconsistent compliance outcomes, with member states exhibiting divergent levels of cooperation based on domestic legitimacy concerns and external alliances, particularly with Russia and the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States. Mediation success was higher where regional consensus aligned with civil society pressure, while threats of military intervention proved largely non-credible and occasionally counterproductive to diplomatic objectives. Conclusion: The findings suggest that ECOWAS's normative authority has weakened amid fragmenting regional solidarity, recommending a recalibration toward incentive-based diplomacy, strengthened early-warning systems, and closer coordination with the African Union to restore institutional credibility in managing constitutional crises within the region.

Keywords: ECOWAS, military coups, regional mediation, West Africa, democratic transition