Empirical Analysis of How Cooperative Sector Policies Affect Agricultural Cooperative Growth in Kaduna State

Agricultural cooperative growth in Kaduna State is shaped by a complex policy environment that includes state-level cooperative laws, national agricultural development programmes, and targeted cooperative support interventions. The empirical relationship between specific policy instruments and cooperative growth outcomes remains underexplored. This study empirically analysed the effects of cooperative sector policy instruments on agricultural cooperative growth in Kaduna State, North West Nigeria. A longitudinal policy impact analysis design was adopted, combining secondary analysis of ten years of cooperative registry growth data (2014 to 2023) with a structured survey of 250 cooperative leaders from fifty agricultural cooperatives in Kaduna North, Zaria, and Jema'a LGAs. Policy variables assessed included exposure to state cooperative development programme interventions, access to government revolving loan funds, and registration under the reformed cooperative byelaw framework. Difference-in-differences estimation was used to compare growth outcomes between cooperatives with and without exposure to specific policy instruments. Results showed that access to state revolving loan funds had the largest positive effect on membership growth (ATT 24.3 additional members over four years; p < 0.001) and capital growth (ATT 1.34 million naira; p < 0.001). Adoption of the reformed byelaw framework had a significant positive effect on governance quality but a non-significant effect on financial growth in the short term. The study provides the first difference-in-differences cooperative policy impact analysis for Kaduna State, offering evidence-based guidance for prioritising policy investments. Keywords: cooperative policy, agricultural cooperatives, policy impact analysis, Kaduna State, difference-in-differences