Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Art Market Development and National Creative Economy Output in Nigeria

The relationship between a country's commercial art market sophistication and its broader creative economy output is theoretically important but empirically undercharacterised in sub-Saharan African contexts, and establishing this relationship for Nigeria provides important evidence for creative economy policy development. This study empirically analysed the relationship between art market development indicators and creative economy output in Nigeria, using a mixed-method design combining secondary data analysis and primary research. Secondary analysis drew on available data from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group's creative economy reports, NBS sector output data, and auction house records from Arthouse Contemporary and Bonhams African art sales from 2015 to 2023. Primary research comprised structured interviews with 20 commercial gallery operators, 12 art market economists, and 8 federal arts policy officers in Lagos and Abuja. Secondary data analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between Lagos commercial gallery growth (38 percent increase in registered galleries from 2015 to 2023) and estimated creative economy contribution growth over the same period. Interview analysis identified four market development constraints limiting creative economy multiplier effects: limited collector base concentration in Lagos, absent art insurance market, inadequate art financing products, and underdeveloped regional market infrastructure outside the South West. The study fills an empirical gap in Nigerian creative economy research by establishing art market parameters as measurable creative economy indicators and recommends the development of a Nigerian Art Market Index as a regular policy monitoring instrument.

Keywords: art market, creative economy, Nigeria, empirical analysis, arts policy