Empirical Study of Gas Infrastructure Investment and Regional Economic Growth in Nigeria: 2010-2023

The macroeconomic relationship between gas infrastructure investment and regional economic growth in Nigeria has significant implications for how infrastructure expenditure is prioritised across the country's geopolitical zones. This study empirically examines the relationship between cumulative gas infrastructure investment and regional economic growth indices across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones for the period 2010 to 2023. The research employs a panel data econometric methodology, constructing a zone-level dataset incorporating NUPRC pipeline and processing plant investment data, state GDP per capita figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), sectoral employment data, and industrial output indices. A two-stage instrumental variable (IV) regression approach is adopted to address the endogeneity of infrastructure investment allocation. The study tests three theoretical mechanisms through which gas infrastructure may affect economic growth: direct energy supply availability improvements, industrial productivity effects through reliable energy, and employment and multiplier effects from construction activity. Findings reveal a statistically significant positive long-run relationship between gas infrastructure investment and economic growth in gas-proximate zones (South South and South West), with a growth multiplier estimated at 1.4 to 1.8 naira of GDP per naira of gas infrastructure investment. The relationship is weaker and less significant in northern zones, consistent with the lower baseline gas infrastructure and market development in those regions. The study contributes original econometric evidence addressing a gap in Nigerian energy economics literature. Recommendations include targeted gas infrastructure investment incentives for northern zones and a monitoring framework linking infrastructure expenditure to regional economic development outcomes. Keywords: gas infrastructure, economic growth, panel data, regional development, Nigeria.