Global Value Chain Integration, Upgrading Trajectories, and Labour Market Outcomes in Nigeria’s Cocoa Export Sector

This dissertation investigates the relationship between global value chain integration, upgrading trajectories, and labour market outcomes in Nigeria's cocoa export sector, making an original contribution to the contested literature on whether GVC participation improves welfare for small-scale agricultural producers in developing countries. Nigeria was historically the world's largest cocoa exporter but has experienced significant decline in global market share, partly due to governance failures in the value chain and limited upgrading from raw bean exports to processed cocoa products. The study employs a mixed-methods longitudinal design, combining a panel dataset of 600 cocoa farming households in Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti states collected across four survey rounds from 2016 to 2023 with qualitative fieldwork including 40 in-depth interviews with farmers, aggregators, processor firms, and international buyer representatives. Quantitative analysis applies treatment effect models to estimate the causal impact of value chain integration intensity on household income, labour market participation, and wage outcomes. The theoretical framework synthesises the global value chain governance framework, the upgrading theory of Gereffi, and the labour economics of agricultural commodity markets. The dissertation introduces an original upgrading pathway typology for cocoa smallholder systems that distinguishes between process, product, functional, and inter-chain upgrading modes and their differential labour market implications. Original contributions include the panel dataset on GVC integration and household outcomes, the upgrading typology, and causal identification of GVC welfare effects using instrumental variables. Policy recommendations address upgrading facilitation and labour standard mainstreaming in cocoa GVC governance. Keywords: global value chain, cocoa, upgrading, labour market, Nigeria