Impact of Climate Variability on Small-Scale Fisheries in Lake Kainji, Niger State

Climate variability is increasingly disrupting the stability of small-scale freshwater fisheries in Nigeria's inland lake systems, challenging the food and livelihood security of lakeside communities. This study investigates the impact of rainfall variability, temperature trends, and drought events on the productivity and management of small-scale fisheries in Lake Kainji, Niger and Kebbi States, focusing on the 2010 to 2024 period. Secondary data on fish landings from the Kainji Lake National Park Authority and New Bussa Fisheries Cooperative are analysed alongside hydrometeorological records from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency stations at New Bussa and Kainji dam. Correlation analysis and distributed lag regression models are used to quantify the lagged effects of rainfall anomalies and reservoir inflow variability on monthly catch-per-unit-effort for priority species. Participatory rural appraisal with 180 fisher households across six lakeside communities documents perceived changes in fish availability, migration patterns, and livelihood adaptation strategies. Phenological observations compiled from traditional ecological knowledge are cross-validated with remote sensing data on lake surface area change from Landsat time series. Findings are expected to demonstrate that drought years linked to El Nino-related rainfall deficits correlate with reduced fish production in the following season, with community responses including intensified fishing effort and seasonal migration to other fisheries. Recommendations address climate-adaptive fisheries management policies for the Kainji Lake National Park Authority. Keywords: climate variability, Lake Kainji, small-scale fisheries, rainfall anomalies, adaptation